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Should You Take Insurance in Blackjack?
When the dealer shows an Ace, you’re offered insurance. It sounds sensible, but the maths says no. Here’s why, with the exact numbers.
How insurance works
- The dealer’s up card is an Ace, so they might have blackjack.
- You can bet half your main bet that the hole card is a 10, J, Q or K.
- If the dealer has blackjack, insurance pays 2:1, which covers the main bet you lose.
- If not, you lose the insurance bet and the hand carries on as normal.
The maths
Insurance pays 2:1, so it breaks even only if the dealer has blackjack one time in three (33.3%). With an Ace showing, the chance is lower than that in every shoe size:
| Decks | Dealer has blackjack | House edge on insurance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.4% | 5.9% |
| 2 | 31.1% | 6.8% |
| 4 | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| 6 (this game) | 30.9% | 7.4% |
| 8 | 30.8% | 7.5% |
With six decks, after the dealer’s Ace there are 96 tens among the 311 cards left: a 30.9% chance. Paying 2:1 on a 30.9% chance loses about 7.4p for every £1 of insurance over time. That’s more than ten times the house edge of the main game played with basic strategy.
Your own cards change it slightly. Holding two low cards leaves a few more tens in the shoe (31.1% with six decks), and holding a blackjack leaves fewer (30.7%). Either way it stays well under the 33.3% needed.
Even money
If you have blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, you’re offered even money: a guaranteed 1:1 win, paid before the dealer checks. It’s the same as taking insurance on a blackjack.
| Choice | Average return (6 decks) |
|---|---|
| Take even money | 1.000× your bet, every time |
| Decline it | 1.039× your bet on average |
Declining wins 3:2 about 69% of the time and pushes the rest, which beats the sure 1:1 by almost 4% of your bet. A guaranteed win feels good, but over many hands declining pays more.
The verdict
- Never take insurance when playing basic strategy.
- Decline even money as well.
- The only players who take it profitably are card counters, at moments when they know the shoe is unusually rich in 10s.
In Perfect Pair Blackjack, try it for yourself with play money, and check the basic strategy chart for every other decision.
Insurance FAQ
Should you take insurance in blackjack?
No, not if you’re playing basic strategy. With six decks the dealer has blackjack only about 31% of the time when showing an Ace, but insurance needs 33.3% to break even, so it loses about 7.4% of every insurance bet over time.
Should you take even money with a blackjack?
No. Even money guarantees a 1:1 win, but declining it is worth about 1.039 times your bet on average with six decks, because most of the time the dealer doesn’t have blackjack and you get paid 3:2.
Why does insurance pay 2:1?
Insurance costs half your bet and pays 2:1, so if the dealer has blackjack it exactly covers the main bet you lose. The price is set so the house still has the edge.
Is insurance ever a good bet?
Only for card counters, when they know the remaining shoe is rich in 10-value cards. For everyone else it is a losing bet.